Electric Vehicles - What to Expect in 5, 10, & 15 Years
EVs are shaking up the global market. But what is causing this EV-olution? Will it keep up the elevation?
EVs run on batteries instead of gasoline. You’ve probably seen them on the road, or maybe you own one yourself. They have been around for more than a century, but only recently have they gained popularity as a viable alternative to conventional cars. They are booming on a global level. There's a bunch of reasons coming together to shape the growing electric vehicle market.
The history of EVs
You might think that EVs are a recent invention, but they actually date back to the 19th century, when the first electric carriages and trams were developed. However, EVs lost their popularity in the early 20th century, due to the mass production of cheaper and more powerful gasoline cars, such as the Ford Model T. EVs remained a niche product for decades, until the oil crises of the 1970s and the environmental concerns of the 1990s revived the interest in alternative fuels.
The modern era of EVs began in the late 2000s, with the launch of the Tesla Roadster, the first mass-produced electric sports car, and the Nissan Leaf, the first mass-produced electric hatchback. These vehicles proved that EVs could be both fun and practical, and sparked a wave of innovation and competition in the automotive industry. Since then, EVs have become more affordable, efficient, and diverse, with models ranging from sedans and SUVs to trucks and buses.
The current state of EVs
Market Overview
Global EV market valued at $163.01 billion in 2020.
Projected to reach $823.75 billion by 2030.
CAGR of 18.2% from 2021 to 2030.
Sales and Market Share
EV sales exceeded 10 million in 2022.
Accounted for 14% of all new car sales.
Regional Markets
China, Europe, and the United States are leading.
China alone contributes around 60% of global EV sales.
Drivers of EV Adoption
Barriers to Adoption
Lack of standardization and interoperability of charging systems.
Uncertainty about long-term environmental and social impacts of EVs.
Top Players by Market Share
Tesla, Inc. (NASDAQ: TSLA), the US-based company that is the world leader in EV production and innovation. Tesla sold about 500,000 EVs in 2020, accounting for 16% of the global market share.
Toyota Motor Corporation (NYSE: TM), the Japanese company that is the pioneer of hybrid vehicles and the second-largest EV producer in the world. Toyota sold about 320,000 EVs in 2020, accounting for 10% of the global market share.
BYD Motors Inc. (OTCMKTS: BYDDF), the Chinese company that is the largest EV producer in China and the third-largest in the world. BYD sold about 230,000 EVs in 2020, accounting for 7% of the global market share.
General Motors (NYSE: GM), the US-based company that is the fourth-largest EV producer in the world and the second-largest in the US. GM sold about 200,000 EVs in 2020, accounting for 6% of the global market share.
Volkswagen Group (OTCMKTS: VWAGY), the German company that is the fifth-largest EV producer in the world and the largest in Europe. Volkswagen sold about 190,000 EVs in 2020, accounting for 6% of the global market share.
Okay, but what will be the state of EVs in the next 5, 10, and 15 years?
In the next 5 years (by 2028)…
Global EV Market Trends
EVs are expected to account for 20% of all new car sales globally, with leading markets in China, Europe, and the US.
EV Model Diversity
The landscape of electric vehicles is evolving with models becoming more affordable, efficient, and diverse. This expansion includes a range of models from sedans and SUVs to trucks and buses.
Technological Advancements
EVs are undergoing significant technological advancements, becoming more connected and autonomous. This progress involves the integration of sophisticated software, sensors, and artificial intelligence.
Charging Infrastructure Improvement
The EV charging infrastructure is set to experience expansion and enhancement. This includes the development of more fast-charging stations and the introduction of wireless charging options.
Battery Technology Advancements
Advancements in battery technology are contributing to making EV batteries cheaper and more durable. This progress is fueled by the adoption of new production technologies and recycling methods.
Fluid Innovation
Innovations in EV fluids are on the horizon, with the potential to replace conventional oil changes. This shift not only offers improved performance but also contributes to lower emissions.
In the next 10 years (by 2033)…
Global EV Market Projections
EVs are anticipated to account for a substantial 40% (probably more) of all new car sales globally.
Emerging markets such as India, Japan, and South Korea are expected to join the ranks of top contributors.
Mainstream Adoption and Accessibility
As technology improves and prices drop, EVs will become more mainstream and accessible to a broader audience.
Customization and Personalization
The demand for different types of vehicles and services will drive a trend toward more customized and personalized EV options.
Sustainability and Circular Practices
EVs are evolving to become more sustainable and circular.
The increased use of renewable energy sources and green hydrogen is contributing to the eco-friendliness of electric vehicles.
Security and Ethical Considerations
Advancements in EVs extend to security and ethics.
Measures are being taken to protect data and networks, addressing concerns related to security.
Attention is also given to addressing the social and environmental impacts associated with EV production and usage.
In the next 15 years (by 2038)…
Global Dominance of EVs
EVs are projected to account for virtually more than 70-80% (maybe even more) of all vehicle sales globally.
This shift will be widespread, with almost every country adopting EVs as the standard mode of transportation.
Innovations and Futuristic Features
Expect new forms and features, including flying taxis, electric boats, and hyperloop trains.
Intelligent and Interactive EVs
The evolution of artificial intelligence and machine learning capabilities will make EVs more intelligent and interactive.
Integrated and Collaborative Ecosystem
EVs will be more integrated and collaborative within the broader mobility ecosystem.
The development of a smart city network is expected to enhance the integration of EVs into the larger urban infrastructure.
Responsible and Beneficial Impact
Anticipate significant reductions in emissions, pollution, and congestion, leading to improvements in health, safety, and overall convenience for users.
Disclaimer: The insights presented and predicted here are based on current information and may be subject to change due to evolving external factors. The dynamic nature of the business environment suggests that projections and analyses could be altered in the future. Also, please note that the sources presented for reference do not directly correspond to the provided data; rather, they represent forecasted outcomes derived from the analysis and emphasis placed on the underlying data.